02 — Projections

The number you can actually close on.

Buying a Colorado STR? This is the service that pays for itself before you close. Every week we watch investors close on properties using AirDNA Rentalizer numbers 25–40% above what the property will ever do. We hand-build the real one.

By-hand projection

$65flat · one-time · 48 hr

8–12 hand-pulled comp listings at your exact address
Seasonal weighting: ski, shoulder, summer, mud — all of it
Adjustments for layout, view, parking, HOA rules
Realistic Y1 and Y2 revenue ranges (not one optimistic number)
Written rationale you can hand to a lender or partner
48 business-hour turnaround

Request a projection

Rentalizer

$94,200

City-average ML guess

Market dashboard average

$87,500

Comp-set average, no weighting

Altimeter (by hand)

$68,300

Actual Y1: $71,100 ✓

Why this matters

A 30% overshoot turns a deal into a workout.

Most Colorado STR markets have brutal mud-season collapses the algorithms don't model and county-by-county regulatory exposure they can't see. We pull real comps on your street, weight them by what we know actually happens between May 15 and June 20, and give you a number your lender will respect — and you'll hit.

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When you order a projection

You get the number. And the full underwrite behind it.

Most STR projections are a single revenue estimate. Ours comes with a complete investment model — built specifically for Colorado short-term rentals. Every projection includes a fully modeled pro forma covering:

Realistic, optimistic, and conservative revenue scenarios
Full P&L: nightly revenue, cleaning fees, debt service, operating expenses, management fees
Return metrics: cash-on-cash, cap rate, NOI, IRR, DSCR, payback period
Tax implications: accelerated depreciation, after-tax cash flow, after-tax CoC
BRRRR / refi modeling: cash-out potential, post-refi debt service, cash left in deal
Comp set: 8–12 hand-pulled comparable listings at your exact address

It's the document you hand to your lender, your CPA, or your partner. Built by an operator who has closed on Colorado STRs himself using the same model.

9 tabs

Full investment model

3 scenarios

Conservative · Realistic · Optimistic

$65

One-time · 48hr turnaround

Order your projection

Sample projection

What you actually receive.

Illustrative — fictional address

Subject property

123 Example St · Breckenridge, CO

SummaryRevenueP&LReturnsTaxBRRRRCompsSeasonalityNotes

Conservative

$58,400

Y1 gross revenue

Occ

54%

ADR

$296

CoC

4.8%

Realistic

$68,300

Y1 gross revenue

Occ

61%

ADR

$307

CoC

7.9%

Optimistic

$79,100

Y1 gross revenue

Occ

67%

ADR

$324

CoC

11.2%

Year 1 P&L (realistic)

Gross revenue: $68,300
Cleaning pass-through: ($7,420)
Operating expenses: ($11,180)
Management fee (10%): ($6,830)
Debt service: ($31,440)
Net cash flow: $11,430

Return metrics

Cap rate: 6.4%
Cash-on-cash: 7.9%
DSCR: 1.36
IRR (5yr): 14.2%
Payback: 8.1 yrs
After-tax CoC: 9.4%

Comp set (8 of 11 shown)

4BR · 0.2 mi$71,800

3BR · 0.4 mi$62,100

4BR · 0.3 mi$74,500

4BR · 0.1 mi$66,900

3BR · 0.5 mi$59,400

4BR · 0.2 mi$72,200

4BR · 0.6 mi$64,800

3BR · 0.3 mi$60,700

The real deliverable is a 9-tab spreadsheet with this depth across every sheet — seasonality curves, BRRRR refi modeling, accelerated depreciation, and a written rationale for every assumption. This is a static preview of the Summary tab only.

Order one for your property